Zeev, if we assume that vlnc only breaks even on
$40M in sales, then X3 is 0 an A-Z is 2, not 3.
You did challenge me to get it over 1.8 didn't you?
Well, if you don't keep forgetting the $20M IDB
money (this is not the first time I've had to
point that out to you), then the point is that
the company has to break even on $40M sales
to clear 1.8. Actually they would come close
if they could break even on say $25M sales.
Larger sales and/or any positive EBIT will
push them up towards 3 rather rapidly, and
any sustained advance in stock price will also
move them up quite quickly on the scale,
probably well above 3.
I have to admit, this is a very interesting
tool. thanks for introducing me to it!
Do you disagree with any of the above?
Again, with no PO, valence looks like a terminal
patient on very expensive life support. The stock
price reflects a belief that PO(s) are a given and
probably not much more than break even level of sales.
Absent a PO, the stock will be subject to downward
pressure. A tiny $10M PO will not stop that without
more financing. Even a great financing deal will
not help much without PO's. PO's and the access to
IDB monies are the difference between a stock which
may well be very undervalued at this level and one
which is clearly overvalued.
I don't know about you, but A-Z really confirms for
me what i already know about this situation. You seem
to still be a little stuck on 'they don't have money',
but that's only when you forget about IDB. Or you just
don't believe what the market is telling you about
an imminent PO. I can't argue with your beliefs on
that score, mine are just different. |
