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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL)
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To: stockman_scott who wrote (9917)4/7/1999 10:27:00 PM
From: larry   of 41369
 
Scott,

I was in CMGI last November when it was trading at 80 (presplit). I made some nice returns in a couple of months and am out of this issue completely right now. It might have some nice potential but I would rather bet on some other issues.

I said that AOL was the best momentum play because traders only pushed this issue in one direction. Issues like YHOO! have wild swings, you know.

I am still in DELL, but in very conservative way. I am not going to pay more than 40 bucks for this issue so that I sold leap puts with stricking price at 40. I sold again recently with a 9 1/2 premium. That's all I want to play DELL.

Sure, this issue is growing 4x the industry average and if I were forced to invest in a hardware issue, I would choose DELL. However, PC market is near saturation and more and more people are buying low end computers. Margins are eroding. Sure, DELL can still grow at 20-30% in the next several years. However, the big question is whether Street is willing to pay a commodity issue triple digit PE multiples. We little guys have no control over what the big boys think.

As far as I love MSFT, recently I sat down with a group of Chicago business school alumni and took a serious look at Mr. Softie. Our conclusion is that Mr. Softie cannot sustain such torrid growth in the future. Softie knows this and probably that's why he is giving such a push toward E-commerce sector.

later,
larry!
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