JH, Friday was indeed a slam.
It's only a summer rally if you turn the chart upside down. I do have to differ with you. My official book on the subject says that to implement the "ostrich method" you would keep the long position and go golfing. Looks like a smooth move.
I did buy 1k MSFT near the close, but the close was not pretty. It looks like a megaphone pattern, and, as long as it doesn't close Monday below about $65.70, the pattern should still be in play for at least a bounce.
The other issue here, of course, relates to NDX. There is the June low support at 1655-7. If this doesn't hold, then we are probably in for some more difficulties. For the weekly line, I'm use the high of 9/1 and the low of 6/15. This would project to ~1530. Before this, we would have to deal with the daily downward trading channel, for which I reflect support at ~1586. It is hard for me to believe that the June low support will not hold, but we will see in a hurry.
As for OEX, I've got all sorts of support points between ~598 and ~606, including the projected extent of the broken H&S pattern. I believe that we are close to a temporary bottom. However, any more warnings like EMC and we could go to hell in a hand basket. I'll recommit to the ice-cube (SPY) Monday morning with 598 and 640 on OEX as the pivot points (with 624 as my first critical test point).
Just A View from the Swamp
TB |
