Mark, Jobs has the memories of past glory, like General MacArthur, and like Mac he has his faults.
There is a lot of over glorification about Jobs. Do not forget his bad track record, both at Apple and elsewhere.
There have been a large number of people trying to put Apple back together. Deep cost cuts that throw away the potential for growth in a few areas could have been done years ago had the decision that those areas were dead horses been made back then. The Newton, good as it was, would never have been started. Other off track stuff would have been avoided, and Apple would have stuck to it's knitting, and would have been profitable 3-4 years ago had this been done at a much bigger share than how. Why did they not do it then??, no pressure to do it, no 'back to the wall' atmosphere, a sense that Apple can do no wrong, hubris and so on.
What we are seeing and it continues is the downsizing of Apple to aprofitable zone. The current zone of 20 cents per quarter ~= 80 cents per share will support a share price of around $15-20. The current run-up is anticipation of a return to the halcyon days when they made 4-5 dollars per share per year. and would support a share price of $60-100 per share(what is Apples historic high, adjusted for splits?)
It will not be easy to get earning up to $4-5/share. They may not get back there for 10 years. So unless a buyer comes down the road we are at a price peak for now, and the summer high build expenses, low sales zone approaches.
However running Apple lean is the correct approach in part.
Bill |
