How To Evaluate The Fast
New Modems
Date: 2/3/97
Author: Nick Turner
Anyone who has used the World Wide Web
knows the frustration of waiting for text and
graphics to materialize.
Even today's speediest modems, which transmit
33.6 kilobits of data a second, feel slow. As
users hop from page to page, the devices may
have to digest an unwieldy amount of sound,
animation and graphics.
But over the last few months, modem makers
have been promising another boost in modem
power. They're readying devices that can send
and receive data at 56 kilobits per second, or
kbps.
When will these data speedsters arrive, and will
you really need one? Should you hold off buying
that 33.6-kbps modem you've been eyeing?
What's new on the feature list for 33.6-kbps and
56-kpbs modems?
''There's a tremendous amount of innovation in
the modem industry,'' said Charlie Oppenheimer,
general manager for the systems division at
modem maker Global Village Communications
Inc.
In time, Oppenheimer says, traditional analog
modems will be even faster than 56 kbps. They
won't likely match the top speed available via
integrated services digital network, or ISDN - a
specialized digital phone line that can send data
at 128.8 kbps. But for many, they'll offer enough
performance at a reasonable price.
Analog modems could suit the needs of many
consumers for years, market analysts say.
Today's latest and greatest modems can be
found for less than $200.
''If you're just Internet surfing for fun, you should
be all right'' with an analog modem, said Lisa
Pelgrim, an analyst at market researcher
Dataquest Inc. in San Jose, Calif.
Modem sales should continue to rise over the
next few years. More than 25 million were sold
in North America last year, Pelgrim says. By
2000, she predicts, that number will top 46
million.
The arrival of 56-kbps modems, expected this
quarter, could give a boost to the market. But
questions surround the new technology.
There's not yet a standard for communicating at
56 kbps. That means different vendors' modems
may not be able to communicate. And there's no
guarantee that users will be able to connect to
their online service or Internet access provider at
56 kbps.
Rockwell International Corp., which makes
many of the chip sets used in modems, is
working to resolve these issues. Together with
Lucent Technologies Inc. of Murray Hill, N.J.,
the firm has established a 56-kbps standard
called ''K56flex.'' But it may be a while before
everyone embraces one standard, Rockwell
officials concede. U.S. Robotics Corp., the
leading modem maker, has its own technology.
There are other problems. U.S. Robotics
recently announced its first wave of modems will
transmit at only 53 kbps. Federal
Communications Commission guidelines on signal
levels will limit the speed of the new devices.
Company officials are hopeful, however, that an
agreement will be reached with the FCC so that
later models will transmit at 56 kbps.
Meantime, pundits say, users may want to wait
and see.
''Nothing is set in stone yet,'' said Curtis Price, an
analyst at market research firm International Data
Corp. in Framingham, Mass. ''Alliances are being
formed, and vendors have jumped on one
bandwagon or another.'' He hopes to see a
standard emerge early this year.
When those matters are worked out, expect a
mass upgrade to the new speed.
''There are 35 million people on the Internet.
Most of those people connect with a modem,
and they're looking for something faster,'' said
Oppenheimer of Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Global
Village Communications.
And there's good news. Many users won't have
to trash their current hardware to get the new
speed. In some cases, the software within
modems can be upgraded.
Many 33.6-kbps modems contain flash memory
chips that can be erased and reprogrammed. To
upgrade these modems, users dial up a bulletin
board service or an Internet site run by the
manufacturer and download the software.
Only certain models can do this, so check the
box of the modem you plan to buy. If you're not
sure whether it's an upgrade candidate, go to the
manufacturer's site on the Web. You'll typically
find detailed information there.
U.S. Robotics is a big proponent of software
upgrades, and its Sportster 33.6-kpbs product
line can be upgraded to 56 kpbs.
How much do upgrades cost? That depends, but
they can be free. Watch for special offers from
manufacturers.
If you decide to go ahead and buy a new modem
now, you'll find many firms are bundling their
products with other technology. Modems long
have doubled as fax machines. Now,
videoconferencing is hot.
U.S. Robotics recently announced a product
called Bigpicture. For less than $400, consumers
get a modem, a color video camera and a video
capture card.
This allows users to make video phone calls and
send video e-mail, the Skokie, Ill., firm says.
''The videoconferencing you get with these
modems isn't the best in the world,'' notes IDC's
Price. ''But it's continuing the trend of getting
more performance and features at a lower price.'' |
