Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 228.20

-2.3%

3:08 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: LemurHouse who wrote (30846)	6/6/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Andy, Agreed that predicting either supply or demand is far from an exact science. Any studies I've seen of the accuracy of forecasts by DataQuest or IDC shows that they seldom come close. Growth is always much larger (frequently by more than a factor of 2) than the forecast. And contractions are much more pronounced than they guess. On the supply side, decisions to shut down fabs or mothball parts of fabs, or not equip a new fab can change the planned supply significantly. Various factors can impact yield either positively or negatively in a fashion completely unforeseen by the forecasters. For the quants, this leads to a very difficult life. I just like the story for the equipment companies. ... at least as I see that story. ;-) Ian.

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next