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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 142.62+2.2%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7906)6/6/1999 6:11:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) of 10921
 
Brian,

I couldn't agree more. Leading edge equipment purchased near the end of '97 probably would have been for .35µ design rules. Equipment being installed today is for 0.18µ and smaller design rules.

With the 300mm roll out equipment purchases starting near the end of next year, the equipment will support 0.13µ and smaller design rules.
Within the following year (i.e. 2001 to 2002), most existing fabs will be either near obsolescence or, at the very least, trailing edge.

And as Zeev has pointed out, many of those fabs won't yet have been completely depreciated.

Yet the chip makers' choice is to exit the business or ante up for the next round. :-)

And I'm betting that they choose to ante up for the next round.

Ian.

The equipment that was purchased during the
last "upturn" in '97 is not too far from being obsoleted also.
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