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Technology Stocks : Pixar Animation

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To: Linda Kaplan who wrote (2490)	6/7/1999 1:44:00 PM
From: Adam Nash	Read Replies (1) of 3261

Crunched the numbers again last night - it looks the same as it did almost two years ago! Basically, it comes down to 2001. I'm expecting approx. $3/share, based on trailing ABL, TSII revenue. We'll also have hype for the new movie which debuts in Summer 2001, which will bolster 2002 revenue just as ABL trails off. P/E 30 gives us a stock price of 90 sometime in 2001. That would suggest that if we were demanding a 25% return from Pixar (given its risky nature), we would expect the following fair market values (approx): 1997 $37.00 1998 $46.25 1999 $57.81 2000 $72.27 2001 $90.33 Note: this is purely Excel magic, based on an assumed earnings model which is based on cash flows that are inherently hard to predict accurately. Garbage in, garbage out.

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