To: Gottfried
From: Paul V.
Monday, Jun 7 1999 2:30PM EST
Gottfried and Tito, Did you notice that AMAT broke the DW decline line when it hit $65 earlier today. It previously broke a double top at $59. It appears to me that the Semi stocks may be moving up. The next double top is at $67, then $69 followed by the Feb. high of $71.
With the breaking of a $71 DW double top the SEMI's will appear to be getting ready for the July, Aug run up.
We will just have to wait and see. It looks to me that the semi industry appears to be ratcheting up. The BTB, orders, and shipment numbers coming out around June 21,22, or 23 will tell us. My only question is whether the strong numbers will continue beyond Aug. and Sept. The low BTB, orders, and shipment numbers, were in 1998 in August and Sept (BTB =.57) therefore the percent increase will be greater during this period when compared against the current year. Then, in October Wall Street may have justification to sell off again.
Tito, what is your scenario?
Just my $.02.
Paul |
