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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 35.81+0.2%Nov 25 3:59 PM EST
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To: xstuckey who wrote (14300)3/16/1997 8:49:00 PM
From: Peter Mills   of 186894
 
Hi X, for exactly the last six months, INTC P/E has not dropped below 22.3 based on trailing earnings. INTC is currently real close to this number, perhaps it's a bottom. Is six months long enough to establish a trend? Perhaps it's a bottom line P/E that Wall Street has assigned to INTC.

As well, the high so far for QTR1-1997 P/E = 28 is not out of line with the just prior to QTR4-1996 earnings release P/E = 32 and the just prior to QTR3-1996 earnings release P/E = 27. Again, all figures are based on trailing earnings which investors at that time were working with.

Also based on trailing earnings, the absolute low 1996 P/E = 12.7 and absolute low 1995 P/E = 13.0

These annual P/E lows are a far cry from the commonly published lows of 8.8 (for 1996) and 8.4 (for 1995) based on simply the lowest share price of the year and year end earnings.

Bottom line is: Current P/E for both high and low are in line with what has been happening over past half year. But if Wall Street hasn't assigned a higher P/E on a permanent basis, then INTC could come down further short term.

The above are the facts. The following is my speculation for activity following 1997-QTR1 earnings release: trailing earnings of $6.92 with P/E ranging from 22.3 to 29.7 will result in share price range of $154 to $205 throughout the quarter. Too optimistic?

Good Luck.

Peter

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