Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 153.52

+3.2%

10:44 AM EST

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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (7909)	6/7/1999 9:22:00 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Zeev, Not all Semi Cap Equipment companies will be successful during the next cycle. So I think I agree with all your points. I just think that I can pick enough of the winners in the next round. One of those is almost certainly going to be MTSN (if the next round includes the 300mm rollout). In the last week, it's up 25% as a wider audience begins to appreciate some of its strengths. (i.e. - Volume has been increasing dramatically.) I don't know who's going to win the Cu shootout between AMAT and NVLS. Perhaps there's enough market to allow both of them to remain big winners. So where I differ from your view, I think, is that by picking the "winner" in each sector, one can get extraordinary returns even if the total sector doesn't see the same trough to peak growth on the next cycle, or some cycle subsequent to that. I do agree that sooner or later, the chip makers will get their act together in terms of building supply to meet demand. I just doubt that they're going to do that this time; and maybe not next time neither. Ian.

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