Hi Art, I think that the feeling that news is needed is pretty unanimous among TA'ers and non-TA'ers. I took a good long look at the thick printed-out 10K today. There is actually a lot of information in the report - but a lot of it concerns things that are up and coming.
As I read the report (I never saw the 1995 10K), it's becoming clearer to me where some of the problems with the stock price may be. I'm sure some of this is obvious to those most familiar with AXC, but, nonetheless... KM is the major focus in R&D and will see increased percentages of R&D money. So every thing and everybody is focused like a magnet (no pun intended) on KM. Also, with sales relatively flat between 1996 and 1995, even though DST products doubled, it seems that DST and AXC's other products will have to perform extraordinarily well if KM is delayed or supplanted by something else. Although the analysts seem to think AXC's non-KM products will take off, again, I think the Street wants definitive proof of this "Herculean accomplishment to be" via continued meeting and exceeding earnings estimates and a distinct annual increase in sales.
Reading through the 10K, it is actually quite positive. There are a lot of irons in the fire, but this is also another place where I think the rub is. AXC has yet to prove itself in overall product development and execution after it's reorganization, consolidation, and its "business model" focus on commercializing KM.
I think that it just may BE the strategy of AXC NOT to tell us much about KM. Reading about all of the other areas in the 10K, seeing the extreme cautions and caveats under KM, and remembering Bramson's admonishment to not think of AXC as "The Keepering Company" -- all make me think they are diverting away from it alone. Not because it's dead (see Part 1, p 1) or in trouble, but because I DO think they want to lessen the volatility of the stock and begin having investors look more broadly at the Co. Further, Bramson, IMHO, is NOT trying to jockey for more. His not selling is a partial stipulation of the deal (see the 10K) and also his belief that things will get better. The best we can hope for now is, as I think Milt Best put it in an earlier post, -- "...we are way too early." Meanwhile, I agree with you, if we at least base at 6 to 6-1/2 or edge up slowly, we're okay for now, pending a KM or other catastrophe.
Finally, if you care to comment. Any particular reasons why you don't have much faith in the mgt? I'm not challenging, just trying to learn more by hearing someone else's opinion... From what I said above, I am just beginning to have some questions of my own.
Thanks, best regards, Ron M. |
