Postal savings, anecdotal sentiment survey...
I have been asking a lot of questions to a lot of different people lately, since some of them are quite personal, it takes a bit of time and especially tact to do...
What do people here in Japan think of the postal savings system, or rather how safe do they think it is? Well, so far I have spoken to about 15 people and all but one thought it was by far the safest (these were not light one liner questions, rather good lengthy discussions on this and other current topics). I got comments like these:
" if the savings in the post office were ever in danger, there would be nothing left to trust in Japan anymore"
" it cannot fail . By definition, the postal savings system is Japan, and the government would never let it down, like it would never let Japan down"
"if it is unsafe to deposit money with the Post office, then there are no commercial banks left standing"
So the general wiff here is that, in a place where there may be nowhere safe to run for cover, the Postal Saving System is the cornerstone of Japan. While it is true that most people knew they would be getting ridiculous returns on their deposits once the 5 year teiki or 10 year teiki expired, the fact that everything else seems too shaky almost ensures that the money will in fact be left there . I am not trying to give financial advice to anybody with an interest in investing in Japan, just sort of trying to get a feel for what the average man or woman around me thinks on financial matters. Sort of a common sense approach. I often sit down also with a broker friend (dont have many of those...) at Daiwa and although I feel she has a slightly biased opinion on things postal, I now believe that the rumors about a run on the Postal deposits come 2000 are exaggerated. While the brokers are working hard at designing new "instruments" to invest with better returns, the average people I spoke to just didn't have any trust in the market, and therefore would avoid their products. The more savvy brokers I believe will be getting more business in the future, but for other than postal reasons... (possible 401k plans, the death of annuities and life insurers short fall spiral on retirement policies to name but two) As usual all caveats apply, JMHO.
What surprised me though, was how little understanding people had of what happened to their money once they entrust it to the Posties...
When asked to whom they thought the money was lent to, many people professed an absolute confidence in the proposition that the money had been lent to sound public projects and ventures...
When I pressed the point with more knowledgeable (usually older) people and asked to give me examples of the projects they had in mind, they responded (hmmm) Kansai International Airport and public highways (<not Aqualine I hope <GGG>) - both are heavily indebted separate public corporations with little prospects of ever making a profit, perhaps even, or certainly with the prospect of default in the current environment , if it was nt for fresh loans...
Anyway, to wrap up my post, I got the feeling that the postal system, as we speak and with but a few months left before said doomsday scenario, was still trusted and I also felt that the average Japanese I talked to looked at it as an anchor to hold on to in a sea of financial troubles.
Still murky enough for sure.
As an aside, as a Citibank customer I now enjoy the benefits of using the Postal ATM network, a big plus when you live in the country side.
sg |
