biowa,
In the antihistamines, SEPR is essentially competing against its own improved drugs. Nora is almost certainly better than Claritin; it just may not be better than DCL, SEPR's improved Claritin. There is no doubt that SEPR can produce improved drugs - look at Allegra, with sales of $500m replacing Seldane, which was taken off the market. It is just unfortunate from SEPR's viewpoint that this one clearly successful example is clouded by the patent squabble with HMR.
The bottom line here is that SEPR is going to end up with, at minimum, something like a mid-to-high single digit royalty on all the next generation antihistamines. I don't know if this is going to ultimately be a $5b market or a $3b market - it depends on what share the previous-generation generics take. Either way, I know enough arithmetic to figure out we are dealing with at least $5 per share in earnings for SEPR from this area alone. If they can successfully partner nora or the ICE for Zyrtec, they could easily get more.
It is true that in general an ICE will not be as valuable as a NCE. It's always coming late to the party, particularly in that SEPR can't capture any value on its own until the original patent expires.
We are also seeing that it is one thing to get an ICE approved as safe and effective; it is quite another to demonstrate to the FDA's satisfaction that it is demonstrably better than the other drugs in its class. This potentially takes big and expensive studies, which is why you don't see many instances of head-to-head trials by the industry.
If you are asking for a certifiable dominate-its-class blockbuster, SEPR don't have one yet, and may never have. They themselves seem most excited by their ICE for Meridia (as an antidepressant). The potential of a once-a-day quick-acting R,R-Formoterol could certainly also be a blockbuster in the asthma market.
Please continue with your skeptical viewpoint - it's a valuable point of view.
Peter |
