Gene, The pc collapse is revenues, which is all that counts. And server ASPs are declining more than pc ASPs, so they are in deep kimshee.
The fact that Rambus creates risk and little in profit opportunity for DRAM producers is obvious from the fact that Intel had to pay them subsidies to produce the dog. Essentially, you are replacing SDRAM with RDRAM. With SDRAM, the DRAM cos. have been very smart in cutting costs. With RDRAM, they are taking on a high cost, very low volume chip. Part of each one they sell goes as royalties to Rambus, which takes none of the losses. IMHO, without Intel bribes, there wouldn't be chip one of these things produced.
Now you have the problem of the computer cos. trying to sell more expensive (because Rambus chips are much more expensive) boxes to businesses in an environment where prices have been dropping like a full service broker off a skyscraper. My guess is these things sell the first month, then, the smarter businesses ignore them forever and buy cheaper computers. The main drawback is comments from Intel and Rambus that the first batches will not produce much in the way of extra speed. That is a great selling tool. Higher prices and not much in the way of performance pickup. During a decline in computer prices and possibly a lockdown of IT spending. |
