donald,
I took a look at ANCR vs. BRCD vs. EXTR using a 10 trading day window since the BRCD IPO. I also looked
at the initial 10 days of the EXTR IPO. Even though BRCD and EXTR are only trading a fraction of their
shares due to the lock up provisions (11% and 14% respectively) these are interesting comparisons:
Issue Total 10 day volume #days > 1M shares traded # days > 2M shares traded Price Range
ANCR 15,823,300 6 1 9.375 ->15.625
BRCD 12,025,800 2 1 46.250 -> 59.750
EXTR(1) 18,094,800 4 1 55.374 -> 42.125
EXTR(2) 1,976,400 0 0 42.00 -> 46.750
Granted, this is a somewhat biased perspective, but I think at some level it may compare trading with a
much smaller trading volume (BRCD and EXTR) to Ancor trading at nearly 100% of outstanding shares.
The implication for me is that when institutions begin to accumulate the stock and Ancor's institutional
ownership starts to move from 4% toward the sector average of 40%, it may be the next logical point
at which the stock begins to rise. In my experience that point will not be publicly known. I
think the only clue will be that Ancor gets regular NASDAQ listing. In my opinion, the real
question that each person needs to decide for themselves is - do I really want to be out of the
stock if that happens?
Here is a 20 day chart of closing prices (percentages) of these three stocks:
techstocks.com
George D. |
