From the Raging Bull Thread of June 7, 1999:
by: HarmonStocks
32221 of 32356
I've gone on record many times over the last 2 months re. the consolidations and trading ranges of both NOVL & SUNW, as well as written & posted reports on our positions at various times during that period both here and at the Raging Bull Site, as well as at other sites, and on other stocks. I have many times stated the different support and resistance levels, also, for "different time periods" during their consolidations. The reason I posted the upside/downside time-frame and price points that I did today, is because on a basis of "technical chart analysis" ONLY, I believe that both the NOVL & SUNW consolidations are approaching the end of a "price-range consolidation", and I believe the up or down direction will be indicated in anywhere from the next 1 to 3 weeks. I am still bullish "long term" on both of these companies, and we still hold ALL OUR LONG POSITIONS in both companies. But, because all stocks sometimes fall in the direction of the overall markets...and because NOVL & SUNW are both in "narrowing triangular" price ranges...I am stating that within 1 to 3 weeks, these stocks should make a firm move either towards recent highs, or else go deeper into a sell-off.
IF, I were to be a contrarian to the present "negative market psychology"...re. interest rates, bonds, the Fed., and also re. the nasty sell-offs the techs. have been hit with..."I would be inclined to suggest" these stocks are going to begin an upside move again...EVEN IF, the Fed. raised rates, I could see the market rebounding "with approval". AND, IF THEY DON'T, that much more strength should come in. ALSO...THE UTILITIES are showing great strength, in the face of higher bond rates of return ...which again, is another bullish sign for the markets. AND, as I stated earlier, the S & P 500 & ALSO...the NASDAQ COMP.
are moving right against 50 D.M.A'S. starting next week, and any strong vol. push up will be a strong technical move for the markets.
All of the above is my own personal opinion, and we are not selling these stocks (NOVL & SUNW), but rather looking for more buy-points. "IF" they should go to the downside...it would ONLY,
be just a better buying opportunity, but it's quite possible here that the contrary "upside" COULD come to pass, because in general, the overall market psychology has been turned against the techs, and they could begin a rally in the next 1 to 3 weeks,
which may surprise both longs and shorts. Look at the great recovery of VTSS to it's highs over the past 2 weeks...that is another stock we have been long in for a very long long time.
NOVL IS DUE...& SUNW, could possibly begin a new lead back to the highs also.
For what it's worth...just my own perspective, AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS "NEVER" PERFECT, so I just try to invest in good fundamentals, but at the same time...let the charts guide me into entry & exit points.
Good wishes to ALL NOVELLIANS - whether short/long/short term OR
long term.......HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND !!!
Sincerely,
E.G. Harmon / Harmon Investments - 6/4/99. |
