I agree that you will probably see RDRAM to some extent in the server market, and perhaps even more so in the supercomputer class market. But why would you see it appear in the HDTV, DVD, set top box, copier, scanner, etc. market when all these devices do fine now with EDO and/or fast page mode RAM?
DVD (mpeg 2) is 12 megabit/sec stream. That's barely beyond 10baseT speeds which can be easily attained with a 80286-based machine, probably even an 8088-class PC.
HDTV could be higher, but currently shipping anamorphic DVDs are close to HDTV specs already and are still in the 12 mbits/sec BW range. Also, those HDTV sets that are manufactured today obviously don't use RDRAM (and therefore apparently don't need it), so what new requirement will drive to use it in the future? It will be several years before even the 1080i and the 720p specs are adopted, let alone anything sharper, although I doubt any of the broadcast specs would need higher memory bandwidth. The single requirement I see the HDTV manufacturers chasing is lower cost.
The problem with scanners isn't the BW, it's the sheer sizes of the files when you use higher resolutions. Don't forget you're scanner is usually connected to your PC via SCSI, so you're bandlimited in transferring the data anyway, why spend more on RAM if it cannot be utilized? Handling the digital files can be improved mainly with more memory, then when there's enough memory, faster memory. See my comment on servers on supercomputers.
Copiers? Maybe, I don't much about how they work... shame on me. I thought many were still analog-based.
Solid state video recorders (simultaneous mpeg 2 encode & decode): these are just coming out, and don't apparently need RDRAM either, although perhaps there would be some reasons to migrate. Still, the high cost of these machines is a top priority, and so there will be significant pressure to lower the cost, not raise it.
I don't doubt that given good silicon support from Intel and some cost or performance benefits (or virtually the same cost) that any new RAM technology like RDRAM could really take off, but absent any incentives for putting it where it ain't right now, I don't see it happening. Look at Divx for an example of a company trying to ram a more expensive product down consumers throats when there is virtually nothing going for it but marketing and a landfill option yet it costs more.
Everybody keeps talking about 64- and 128-bit processors, etc, but the most popular processors in the world are still 4-bit jobbers. Microwave oven, blender, oven, refrigerator, etc. They're cheap and they do the job. |
