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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Michael Bakunin who wrote (61874)6/9/1999 3:42:00 PM
From: Timothy Liu  Read Replies (2) of 132070
 
Saw some discussion on RMBS. Don't have much more to add except that it may make good investment sense for someone to be long RMBS shares and somebody else long RMBS puts.

For longs: Give RMBS 50% chance (conservative IMO) of achieving moderate success in which case its stock will go to 200$ (very conservative). Another 50% it will drop to 0$ (very conservative). Give you 100$ mean which is 20% over today's price. A more realistic estimate give you any where from 50%-200% mean return. If you have 10 investments like this you will do pretty good.

For puts: The 50% chance of the stock drop to ~30$ may worth your while.

Probability theory is much easier than QM. :)

Tim
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