Richard,
i am a proponent of the 2-year semi cycle, i will probably sell my TER around Oct or so. Can you imagine, TER is back to its Pre-1997 Asia collapse price. But many other back-enders are still off: COHU, KLIC, ESIO, etc.
there's so much talk about how 2000 will be a great year for semiconductors, its kinda weird. according to the 2 year cycle, we will see semi equip stocks starting their decline again due to DRAM pricing, underutilization, etc, or whatever Wall Street analyst conjure up to pop the bubble.
This 2 year cycle started in 1995. Prior to 1995, semi equip stock prices were not as volatility.
good luck
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