May 26th SOX and 1318 1330 on SPM.......The only way I know about correctness of my posts is to see, did things materialise the way I thought them.... when everyone else was looking differently this was my post on direction of market and picking up of TECH stocks at 372. It is posts like this that makes fortunes..
from IQBAL LATIF on May 26 1999 11:17PM EST
Here comes the bounce, 1292 and 1980 and 2360 SPM NDX COMP levels
solidly held quote.yahoo.com and as stated if market has to move IDEA
knows it a little in advance, we comment on market 12 hours early but look at these
levels and look what market did, you just don't get better than this in the world of
forecasting, Ike magic continues, no exotics only CW..Big claims backed by big
performance with targets and with full knowledge of internal dynamics....
This thread is not only about a break down but as I had explained 1292 break will
take a lot of doing that exactly happened,it is also about making a big trade as we
move up my yesterday DOT was moved to 562 and 372 on SOX and BKX 840, a
bounce of 550 I predicted, MER and otehrs i highlighted did extreemly well and I
was in it as the bounce came in. A single close below it was a false break, now look
at this forecast.. we write about market action a day early but hit the bulls eye.. I am
right now looking at 1318 objective and 1330 as the top until circumstances
change... I expect 1302 to hold and we take this thing to 1318 and extended to
1330 where we need some huge hedge against new positions, even if 1292 is taken
out get out of the long calls and sell 2140's on NDX to purchase 1900 on NDX or
1330 on SPM to sell and 1250 to be longed only on a break of 1292 or 372 on
SOX and 554 on DOT.. 832 on BKX... otherwise wait ofr the resistance at 1318
and 1330..
<< I would as suggested earlier like a base for summer rally from the lows, it would
be
healthy for the momentum players if they can hold the fire and wait for the test of
800 500 on BKX DOT, but I would like to take advantage of the window of
opportunity resulting from this huge drop, we will see a bounce off 550 a sell off
again after a move up of 50 points like 612 on DOT and 1318 on SPM, if some
one expects it is going to rocket up from lows I doubt it, market needs confirmation
from macro-economic numbers right now it is few days until meaningful data
convinces markets of its future course, for me right now it has to be a dead cat
bounce until 625 on DOT is decisively taken out, those who want to take advantage
of this dead cat bounce would need to be nimble but I would do nothing unless
1299 is taken out solidly for that bounce to materialize, what is a solid take out
means, I like index to break its resistance and stay above for 45 minutes to one
hour minimum. in our jargon of day trading 1 hour is a long basing period, again this
is just to avoid whipsaw. >>
SOX above 372..
<<I will think that we are at key supports on PSE 506 level, SOX 372, DOT 540,
IIX
274, RUT 430. I will like to change my bias and will certainly go long by selling
NDX puts 1840 and buying individual stock and the DOT index. I will like SOX to
take out 385, I will be looking to go long MOT TXN LSI LRCX AMAT, if 372
holds and we move up to 385.>>
And PSE will move if SOX moves...
<<If SOX moves definitely PSE will show a good move I see no reason to go long
EMC at 520 a shade above 20 days MA of PSE, CSCO will be my other choice
and I will top it with NOK LU..>>
MER is a great buy..
<<As SOX and PSE make the move BKX will see 810 area but above 840 MER
JPM WFC C are great buys, however I don't believe in catching a falling knife let
these indexes improve from these supports, I will keep a close eyes on RUT if we
go through 430 we will see a huge sell program to test the supports, anyway we are
below the 50 days MA on most of these stocks and indexes and certainly it is worth
to keep entries very clearly defined.>>
And selection in DOT..
<<As SOX and PSE make the move BKX will see 810 area but above 840 MER
JPM WFC C are great buys, however I don't believe in catching a falling knife let
these indexes improve from these supports, I will keep a close eyes on RUT if we
go through 430 we will see a huge sell program to test the supports, anyway we are
below the 50 days MA on most of these stocks and indexes and certainly it is worth
to keep entries very clearly defined.>>
Justification of a move....
<<I am looking at NDX 1980 and COMP 2380 as levels which should hold say
plus
minus 20 points also 1278 may be tested to run stops or 1250 if a huge sell
program hits strong, but here is a level I would like my 1250 long puts bought for
low price hedged with 1840 NDX puts I will be long near the money SPM puts and
short 9% out on NDX, if market rallies I will like to leg out of 1250 longs at 1304
level and let the NDX puts run naked. Ideally this correction should run its course in
next few days with a bounce now and a sell off again, or may be no bounce and sell
big like 8th Oct or 27 Oct 98 and 97, I think DOW should test that 9800 level and
a good probe of 1230 will give this market solid support for summer rally. The
conditions of 27th and 8th do not exist, but a possibility has to be accounted for,
that would take this retracement to incredible 1740, where we saw the break out
back on 25-28th Oct 1998 we have never visited that area again, but it is an
outside limit of my thought process, I would wait for that 1292 to be a false break
today that gives me initial long signal.>> |
