Drug sales will boom in coming years
NEW YORK, Jun 09 (Reuters Health) -- Although many top drugs will lose US patent protection over
the next 5 years, sales from new and existing products will more than make up for any lost revenue in
coming years, according to IMS Health, a London, UK-based pharmaceutical information firm.
An aging population, particularly baby boomers who demand a better quality of life in retirement,
continuing medical breakthroughs, improved efficacy and safety of drugs, and patient awareness will
drive the demand for medication, said Jim Newell, president of global services for IMS Health in a
press briefing here on Monday.
''The evolving North American model, of faster drug approvals, greater patient awareness, and move to
consumerism is changing the landscape of the pharmaceutical business.'' Newell said. ''While other
countries may try to hold back the tide, it is likely that the new global communications media, such as the
Internet, will force the pace of change leading to raised growth in all regions.''
According to Newell, a survey of the top 40 pharmaceutical companies -- those that he said are truly
global -- revealed that approximately $37 billion in revenues from branded drugs is subject to patent
expiration within the next 5 years. He said that about half of that amount would be affected by generic
competition.
However, he said that growth of existing products and new product introductions would result in a $70
billion gain over the amount expected to be lost from those drugs going off patent. Newell said that this
amount is enough to sustain 7% - 8% growth in sales. He expects global pharmaceutical sales to reach
$415 billion by 2002.
The global pharmaceutical industry generated revenues of $302 billion in 1998, of which North America
sales accounted for $140 billion. Europe generated $90 billion in pharmaceutical sales, while Asia,
Africa and Australia accounted for $73 billion of the total.
Nine countries, including the US, Italy, Japan, Germany, France, the UK, Brazil, Spain and Canada,
account for 74% of world pharmaceutical sales. Over the next few years, Spain is expected to lead the
way with 48% growth, followed by the US with 46% growth, the UK with 42% growth, and Canada with
34% growth.
There is a record number of drugs in the pharmaceutical companies' pipelines, ranging from 330 new
chemical entities in clinical trials to nearly 4,700 new chemical entities in preclinical development,
Newell said. |
