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Bill: I am not educating you but discussing with you and trying to learn from but not to be fooled by the Street. Let's discuss the facts of this stock again. Talking the potential 100,000 Avonex users, I believe that the numbers will be very hard to be reached. Why? It's simple. It has been proved that there were only 37% of MS suffers who would be benefited from taking Avonex. It means about 37000 among the 100,000 users would say good words on Avonex but about 63,000 would say bad words on this drug because they spent big money but got nothing expecting suffering from the serious side effects. It will eventually keep new users away from Avonex. If the estimated 300,000 MS patients in the US were true (I doubt), the MS patients in Europe and Japan may only be less than 200,000 based on the populations. Let's say half of the patients are going to take Avonex. It will be 250,000 (a dream number). After one year trial, there will be only 90,000 users in the world to use Avonex based on the 37% efficiency. The number is 10% lower than Biogen expected. If 20% of MS patients in the world to use Avonex, it will be 100,000 (an ideal number). After one year trial, we may only have 37,000 left. The 37,000 will create annually about $444 million or quarterly $111 million of end user cost (not the sales of Biogen). So, that's why I think the Avonex markets have become saturated since Biogen's sales were already over that. Good luck! |
