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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 659.00

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (16606)	6/10/1999 8:20:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Haim, re: low VIX: this is a tough one to call; it allows for two contradictory interpretations. the bullish one would be that the sellers of put options are prepared to accept lower premiums, meaning they do not expect a meaningful decline. the bearish view would be that the low VIX indicates complacency. unfortunately the VIX at 24,20 is not at an extreme, which makes it even harder to interpret. my gut feeling(sorry<g>) is that it should be higher, in view of the weak bond market. as i have mentioned in my latest put/call ratio update, i do not entirely trust the recent bullish signals given by the options indicators, mainly because of the deteriorating interest rate picture. regards, hb

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