Peace:
From: Transnational Foundation TFF <tff@transnational.org>
[email to ask to be added to this listserver]
Press Info #69 June 9, 1999
"Here we go again! Media around the world tell us that there is a 'peace'
process, 'peace' negotiations and a 'peace' agreement soon to be
concluded. There will be NATO 'peace-keepers' in Kosovo. They tell that
Yugoslavia and the Balkans are taking the first steps to long-term 'peace'
and stability. To a peace professional it's all Orwellian Newspeak. This
authoritarian NATO operation bodes ill for the future, for world order,
normativity, lawful governance, democracy, moral politics and indeed
peace," says TFF director Jan Oberg. "The present and future costs of this
type of peace policy are unacceptable and out of proportion with the
Albanian-Serb problem it purported to solve in the first place. Today
Serbs and Albanians are more polarised and hateful than ever. The very
least would be to stop using the word 'peace' under circumstances like
these. There are those who say that there were no alternatives - but they
suffer from either a) lack of knowledge about conflict-resolution, b) lack
of political imagination, c) self-censorship or d) authoritarian
NATO-fundamentalist attitudes - or perhaps all of it in some proportion.
Here are some facts."
Human costs and war crimes
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Since NATO started bombing on March 24, the number of refugees and
displaced have increased from around 50.000 to 800.000; the number of dead
and wounded increased from around 2.000 to an estimated 15.000. Atrocities
have been committed by the Yugoslav/Serb side, by KLA and by NATO; the
latter has used depleted uranium bombs and cluster bombs and otherwise
violated internal law by deliberately destroying predominantly civilian
objects and terrorising millions of civilians.
Cost of destruction, bombing and re-construction
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Kosovo - or independent republic of Kosova - we wanted to preserve is
demolished; the rest of Yugoslavia partly in ruins. The immediate direct
material costs range between US $ 50 and 150 bn, the indirect and
long-term costs may be several times bigger. No one knows the costs of the
bombing - 33.000 sorties by 1100 planes, aircraft carriers, bombs,
missiles, ammunition, surveillance, international coordination, fuel,
supplies, wages, insurance, social benefits, transport, etc - but if we
estimate it at US $ 500 million per day, we come close to US $ 40 bn. The
region now faces a huge environmental destruction, the Danube in
particularly affected. The US has carried out most of the destruction, the
EU will be footing the bill for reconstruction - a tremendous burden on
the EU.
NATO in Yugoslavia/Kosovo - armed 'peace' and no independent Kosova
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
50.000 NATO troops in Kosovo is more than the repressive Yugoslav
government ever had in the province. None of the agreements or, rather,
dictates make reference to institutionalised consultations with the
Yugoslav government. Except for the possibility that a referendum may be
held later, there is no mention of an independent Kosova, and the KLA/UCK
must be disarmed. So, neither the Serb nor the Albanian side is going to
get or achieve anything beyond what NATO will allow them to.
Next, likely exodus of Serbs
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The G8 document stipulates a complete withdrawal of Yugoslav military and
police (with the return of a few, later) from the Kosovo province where,
by the way, many of them were born and raised. The region will be occupied
mostly by those NATO countries under US leadership that bombed Yugoslavia
into de facto capitulation. A Russian contingent will be co-located and
not cover any zone by itself. If so, one can hardly expect many Serbs will
feel safe enough to stay, let alone return.
There will be more refugees, the majority won't go back in the near future
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Let's look at ALL the refugees. There are some 800.000 Albanian refugees.
It is highly unlikely that they will be able to go back this year; getting
50.000 troops operable in a heap of ruins full of mines and with no water
is not done overnight. And what would they come home to? After 4 years
about 10% of the refugees have returned to Bosnia-Herzegovina. Then there
is the other - forgotten - refugee problem. Since 1995 Yugoslavia has
hosted some 600.000 predominantly Serb refugees from Croatia, Bosnia, and
Macedonia. There are 150.000 to 200.000 Serbs in Kosovo; if they choose to
leave the province, there are equally many Serbs inside and Albanians
outside waiting to come home. Media attention is almost exclusively on the
Albanians and, thus, the willingness to bring humanitarian aid to all in
need is likely to be met with 'donor fatigue.' In addition, the bombings
have made many leave Belgrade and other parts of Yugoslavia for Hungary
and other European countries (if they can) and displaced thousands inside
Yugoslavia. Finally, when the worst is over we may expect hundreds of
thousands of FRY citizens wanting to leave as they see no future for
themselves and their children in the double cage of the Milosevic regime,
the NATO occupation and their combined devastation of the country. So the
real refugee problem may reach 2 million people.
Neighbouring countries suffer
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Countries around have paid a multi-billion dollar price too. Although some
may capitalise on it, full compensation is out of the question. Macedonia
is on the verge of collapse; Albania is converted to a combined refugee
camp on the one hand and a NATO base and UCK training ground on the other.
Croatia suffers a heavy blow to its tourist industry this summer. All
Yugoslavia's trade partners have lost that market, first during years of
sanctions and now because of the devastation. It can not be disputed that
this type of peacemaking has destabilized the region for years to come.
A new Cold War approaching
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
And there is a larger framework. The Ukrainian parliament has voted
unanimously to revert the country to its former nuclear status. On April
30, a meeting of the Russian National Security Council approved the
modernisation of all strategic and tactical nuclear warheads. It decided
to develop strategic low-yield nuclear missiles capable of pin-point
strikes anywhere in the world. The defence ministry authorised a change in
nuclear doctrine. Thus Russians feel humiliated through the 1990s, but go
along with most US/Western demands because of its frail leadership, its
economic weakness - it can hardly pay for its own troops to be deployed in
Kosovo for years ahead - and its dependence on the West. And in Beijing,
the bombing of the Chinese Belgrade embassy has resulted in a shift away
from the no-first-strike principle. Add the spy accusation, human rights
policies and WTO negotiations and we begin to see the contours of a new
Cold War. Russia, China and India - and others - have learnt not to trust
the stated peaceful aims of the West. Many countries with secessionist
minorities are likely to anxiously wonder when they will get the treatment
Yugoslavia did.
Strengthening the principle that might makes right
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Without being unduly philosophical, remember Gandhi's famous dictum that
'means are ends-in-the-making.' Mighty weapons, NATO dictates, de facto
occupation and an all-dominating US presence can not bring genuine peace
and democracy to the peoples of the Balkans. It is not diplomacy backed up
with force, it's force backed up with diplomacy. The process has
systematically marginalised small NATO countries, non-NATO countries, the
UN, OSCE and NGOs. It has torn to pieces every vision of a multi-cultural,
participative world order and the principle of bringing about peace by
peaceful means. We are ALL worse off with this outcome," says Dr. Oberg
and ends: "This whole process displays too much muscle, too little
intellect and no heart. It should be humanly possible to imagine a
slightly better balance between the three, and only such better balance
would deserve to be called peace."
© TFF 1999 You are welcome to reprint, copy, archive, quote or re-post
this item, but please retain the source.
Dr. Jan Oberg
Director, head of the TFF Conflict-Mitigation teamto the Balkans and
Georgia
|
