Re: TLAB's Cablespan Product -- AT&T
DenverTechie,
Well looks like you were right on in your analysis (see linked response above)of Cablespan. But keeping things in perspective, Cablespan is estimated to be a $70 million product for Tellabs. I don't know exactly what the figures are for Cornerstone (I'm surprised TLAB published their breakdown), but ANTC does $570 million a year exclusively to MSOs. ANTC is an MSO specialist whereas Cablespan is a side business for TLAB.
So even though H&Q is somewhat excited by Cablespan, I can't believe it would really should be of great concern for the Cornerstone product. But apparently the bit of news may be causing some angst for ANTC (along with the AT&T Portland decision).
Once AT&T overcomes all the short term obstacles, there is more than likely going to be enough business for Cornerstone, Cablespan, and Homeworx.
PLUS, I'm not aware of any analysts doing a good job on estimating what Paul Allen will be spending on his cable plant upgrades. Those have to be some substantial figures too. Any week now his spending plans (and raising capital plans) will probably become a hot topic for the financial press.
MikeM(From Florida)
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H&Q Comments: ....As a result of conversations with Tellabs management at the Supercomm trade show, we believe that the company's near-term fundamentals are exceedingly strong and that the company has visibility into the next several quarters..... We also believe that the company has the opportunity to be a beneficiary of AT&T's cable telephony spending. We are placing BUY rated Tellabs on our FOCUS LIST.
Tellabs Cablespan product, a cable telephony platform, could be a beneficiary of AT&T's spending on upgrading its cable plant for telephony both in what was the old TCI plant as well as other cable properties. While the Cablespan's largest current customer is A2000 Cable Television & Telecommunications (Europe), Tellabs does sell the Cablespan to AT&T's pending cable acquisition, MediaOne. We believe that there could be upside to our 1999 estimate of $70 million for the Cablespan product. We would note that this estimate does not include any meaningful revenue contribution from AT&T.
Additionally, we would pointout that we believe that margins on the Cablespan product are currently significantly below the corporate average of 59%, but we would expect this to improve over time. |
