I'm Feeling pretty good about being all cash again. I kicked myself for a wee bit yesterday after getting out of NITE at the open and they issued a press release implying they were a major market maker for ML.
NITE popped to 62, and I was thinking of getting back in, but the momentum died right away. Then NITE issued a retraction saying that it only makes a small market for ML so far but "hopes" to do more in the future. Not good. NITE dropped overnight and is hovering around 57 as I write this.
There are a lot of good ops out there, but my risk averse side is dominating my gambling side for the moment. IMO making money right now requires good stock picking and that means spending a lot of time at it--which I don't have at the moment (another + to Dale's investing strategy).
I still think the market overall is looking for an excuse to tank, and the opportunities will be better. Even though the hi techs are well off their highs, the good ones (and some bad even) are still up dramatically from last fall. Good cos that are taken down in a broad slump are the first to bounce back, and that's where having the capacity to make a big purchase can really be profitable (potential + for me).
The NITE hypsters are raving about the upcoming blowout earnings, and that is likely true. However, IMO, there will be a general slowdown in trading activity and the market will tend to stagnate or worse as the year end approaches. While I think most of us believe Y2K problems are overblown, there will be a lot of people who will not want to take any chances, both on the business side and on the investing side, so will go to the sidelines, therefore fulfilling the prediction of a decline.
Shorting the indexes might be a decent strategy.
Jim |
