Rec'd this in the mail today(email) and totally agree with the comments so am repeating them here for your comments, they make a lot of sense and in light of last two days activity explain some of my concerns
holding long
john
Hi John
Gino here,I recently got canned from SI for a week so I can't post
Can you kindly post this for me Thank-you
Post this part below
From StockHouse-GRQ MAN
It seems to me that on this thread we are belaboring the need for massive sales and earnings in order to get this
stock moving.
IMO, that's not the way it is going to happen.
Stocks move for many reasons...too many to discuss in detail. But here's what I envision is about to happen.
1. First of all, let's not forget that we have had more than a year of consolidation. Regardless of why people
bought the stock at higher prices last year, there's been plenty of time to shake the weak holders out. We have
witnessed millions of shares move from short term and uninformed shaky hands into the strong hands of players
who are more knowledgeable and can see the long term potential. These new holders are not going to sell for a 10
cent profit. They expect to see the stock at $3-$10/share someday. Therefore, we now have a GREAT base to work
from. A technician looks for this kind of a base when picking a stock with great run potential.
2. Secondly, little or nothing has been packed into the price of the stock for all the fundamentally great things that
have developed over the last year...ICI, US Coast Guard and Navy, marina deals, new product developments,
foreign licensing deals, etc.., etc.., etc.., not to say anything of the intrinsic value of the patents. I've forgotten
more than I can remember because there have been so much developing. I strongly suspect that Brad's brief case
is bulging with pending deals nearing final approval.
3. Stock prices don't wait for final sales and profits to be reported. Once a stock is followed by one or more
brokerage firms and market makers, the price can begin to reflect projected future sales and earnings. In April,
when I visited the company, Brad mentioned that one of the Canadian firms was starting to follow the stock. I
haven't heard of any report yet, but this too could be about due for release.
4. We don't need sales contracts from everyone who is someday going to buy the products. We only need a
couple significant orders from major customers to give the fundamentals credibility and catch the market's
attention. Just suppose a major airline order, a US Navy (possibly for an aircraft carrier)order, and an ICI industrial
customer order of significant size were all received in the same quarter. IMO, that should happen in the current
quarter. I think the stock would react very positively on the upside.
5. Stocks move for market and technical reasons. The market for small cap stocks has been poor...many say it is
overdue for a turnaround. Technically, the stock seems to me to be ready for a major move. Supply is about dried
up, and volume is very light. When a little good news is released that really causes the market to want some of
this stock, the price new investors will have to pay will be much higher. IMO, the cheap stock is gone! Just
consider that if a serious investor wants to position the stock, he has to buy several hundred thousand shares.
Where's he going to get them at these prices? A small fund might have to buy stock for several weeks to
accumulate a modest position. Do you think the price will stay where it is now when this starts to happen?
6. Additionally, we have a large number of potential investor, some who bought and sold at gains or losses over
the last year, who are sitting and waiting for something to ignite the stock. They remember, as we do, that this
stock was the second most active on the Toronto Exchange for awhile. Brad has a reputation for being able to
ignite a stock. Fearing that they will be left behind, some of these people panic buy and drive NIR upward, well
beyond justification based on any fundamental analysis of sales and profits.
Here's what I expect will happen...and soon. A series of good news announcements will have to be made, and
some of these will contain some nice initial orders. The third quarter financial might look better than expected. The
fourth quarter will be profitable. A good research report will hit the street. Additional licensing agreements will be
announced. The stock will be listed on the US NASDAQ Bulletin Board, and US investors will be able to easily
access the stock. NIR will become extremely active. The fundamentals will be projected out for 6-24 months by
some reputable investment firms, and they will completely reshape everyone's thinking about what the stock is
worth. And we are off to the races on a rocket sled. BTW, this is only my opinion, and it is not based on the views
expressed by the company of anyone else.
In conclusion, I repeat my earlier predication, NIR will hit $5.00 or more by year end. Now is the time to increase
your position, because when this happens, you won't have time and reasonable prices to do so.
Please post your opposing views. I'd like to hear and see the other side of the story. |
