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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 226.05+1.2%Nov 14 3:59 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (30950)6/10/1999 2:10:00 PM
From: LemurHouse  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
A couple of nights ago I was at a function where Mark Andreesen was speaking about the challenges in starting successful technology companies. (Andreesen being the "father" of the Netscape web browser -- with appologies to Al Gore and the rest of the Netscape design team -- and is now chief technology guru at AOL.) Andreesen gave a few of his personal rules, one of which was his rule of "N3" -- Nobody kNows 'Nothin'.

He meant that none of the pundits, analysts, or so-called experts can successfuly predict the future, and that start-ups need to embrace the obvious but difficult fact that the sector is characterized by rapid and unforseen changes of direction, technologies, players, etc. Start-ups (and investors!) need to be flexible and adaptable, but above all to trust their own vision.

I guess we can add to that group the industry leaders themselves. AMAT no doubt thought they were being prudent and responsible in shelving the 300mm program, and making a virtue out of that fact in the conf call. Obviously, their timing was off. Now they have to do some dancing to convince the world that the program was never very far back on the shelf, and that they are the still lead dog in the 300mm tool race. Ah well.

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