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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 659.00+1.0%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST
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To: Yogizuna who wrote (16741)6/10/1999 5:12:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum  Read Replies (2) of 99985
 
Yogi, they just had a bond analyst on CNBC who pointed out that bearish sentiment on the bond has reached the oversold zone, just as the bond has arrived at a major support level. this suggests the bond should rally soon - the question is whether it will be a flight-to-quality rally or a reaction to benign inflation indicators. in other words, we *will* have an explosive move in the stock market, but it's very hard to bet on the direction at this juncture. the upcoming economic data and the FOMC meeting will provide the answers. i would like to see the market tank some more on strong volume to enable me to go long with some confidence. some people who study cycles argue that long- intermediate and short term cycles are pointing down at the moment, so from this point of view there may be a chance for this to happen. unfortunately the various views on cycles i am privy to are in part contradicting each other. let me point out what i see as bullish evidence here: 1.some internet stocks are showing signs of life 2.the SOX is breaking out to the upside 3.many leading issues continue to have positive money flows 4.options-related indicators have turned more bullish recently 5.bullish sentiment according to the various polls is decreasing. having said all that, rates remain the one big negative so far, and everything else is meaningless if they do not manage to turn around. may i ask what the Yogi indicator is? just a general outline would be appreciated.

regards,

hb
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