Seagate Technology - Fundamentals Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology - Fundamentals

STX 261.21

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12:59 PM EST

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To: Gator who wrote (923)	6/10/1999 8:00:00 PM
From: Kevin Linder	Read Replies (1) of 1989

IBM is of course using 0 SEG drives. I think that SEG and the other drive makers do tend to trade in a pattern (I gave up a long time ago trying to figure it out though). One of the best ways to buy HDD stocks seems to be when there is so much blood in the streets that no one wants to touch them - then sell when all of the brokerage firms get on the bandwagon. SEG has some interesting things up their sleeves IMO. The part ownership of VRTS and the shares that they own of Dragon Software make this an interesting opportunity stock. They also own a portion of a company called Sandisk - which makes memory flashcards. Check out Steve Luzco's (the CEO's) background on the SEG website. His is an investment bankers background - very much different than Al Shugart the founder of SEG. SEG also was one of the first of the drive makers to jump on the "information appliance" bandwagon by furnishing WebTV's with hard drives. Other HDD companies are now producing these devices of course, but the U-4 seems to be ideal for these kind of products - after all do you need a 20-Gig hard drive for them? I did catch (after my response)that you are a IT person - however, I always try to check out opinions of other industry people to find out the scoop. Look especially for SI posts from "Stitch," "Gottfried," "La Traguhs," and Lawrence Kam. These people are very informative and know what they are talking about. I also subscribe to the VARBusiness Insider Newsletter. That talks about prices, trends and other things effecting the computer market as a whole. Another good site is the Street.com - Cramer has run several good stories over the past year to year and half about the background of the HDD industry and when to invest and when not to invest. Good background information for a beginner looking at this sector. I will tell you that Michael Murphy of the "California Stock Technology Letter" has been very bullish on SEG for two years now - and consequently very wrong. I think he calls SEG one of the "Potential Blue Chip Technology Stocks of Tomorrow" - only time will tell if he is right or still wrong about SEG. One of the final and best times to invest in the HDD industry is when there is consolidation or a total and final casualty. Look at such endings as Conner, Micropolis and others to see what I mean. When that happens the excess capacity seems to dry up and there is a brief period of Nirvana - until overbuilding occurs and "profitless prosperity" strikes. Good luck and hope this helps. Kevin Linder

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