Also, Robert Barry, you are much too optimistic and too blue-eyed
about the future KFOR mission inside Kosovo.
Especially when you say,
(goldsnow: << KLA and NATO will have first confrontation in winter >>)
The KLA is not stupid. They realize that the only way for them to insure lasting protection for the Kosovo Albanians is to stay strong and coexist with NATO as allies. NATO is going to need a strong KLA before they can pull out of Kosovo. NATO needs the KLA and the KLA needs NATO. This relationship might change if democracy comes to Serbia after the Milosevics are executed.
1.
You assume it is the KLA's highest interest to ensure
"lasting protection" for the Kosovo Albanians. The
least I want to say is "The KLA still has to prove
that they have this interest at all."
2.
Didn't you notice that all the political parties of Serbia
are nationalist racists? E.g. Djincic's well appraised
"Democratic party" claims a politics of "Castration"
against the Kosovars. Maybe the most moderate of the
racists was the Kosovan LDK that was not backed
by NATO, not even during the Rambouillet time. We
rather backed the KLA, violent radicals terrorist party.
3.
I, too, don't agree with Goldsnow's supposition of first
KLA-NATO clashes in winter. It really should be much
earlier. Let me give a scenario route for most serious
confrontations, that may last over years.
It all starts with deploying German troops in Western
Kosovo (the one KLA stronghold) of all possibilities.
The Germans will fail to disarm the KLA, even to do
any good about them. When it comes to meeting with
foreign troops, the best the Germans can do is spending
a beer and offering a joint barbecue.
If there is any confrontation or conflict of interest between
KLA and the Germans, our officers will bend their ways
not to disturb the KLA fighters. Whimps, cowards, political
Naives, addicts of feelings of Harmony. The KLA will be
surprised about German friendliness. Then they will
send those of their young men, who came from
albanian/kosovan families in Germany a few weeks ago,
to celebrate the barbecues together with the German troops.
At the same time any paramilitary atrocity, any storage of
arms in convenient places, any criminal act and any
possible breach of NATO/KLA understanding (if there
was any) will be done.
In total naivity the German NATO troops will disbalance
the assumed peace deal system inside Kosovo by not
taking notice.
After that nice experience the KLA will use the German
Kosovo zone as a confirmed stronghold to operate over
the whole region.
Either the professional troops (Britain, US) or the
Russians will notice.
Fights will come, but from their now well affirmed position
the KLA is invincible. Bombing against KLA cannot be done.
As a militiy they are less vulnerable against bombings
than the Serbs were (and even them could not really be
defeated in militaric terms, we deleted their home
resources instead.)
And having our troops inside, we can't bomb anyway.
NATO will have to give in to the KLA, allowing them
control of the region.
What should we do then? Pull out our troops and leave
a field open for Serbs and KLA to fight each other, under
the most cruel conditions ever? Or let our troops stay
watching the disaster, more and more affirming by
our presence the KLA tyranny in Kosovo?
Sooner or later we will see German tanks, stolen
by young KLA fighters, while the soldiers fetched new
barbecue materials, attack American troops. The
Germans will stand their with hanging arms,
rhythmically pleaing to their NATO partners
"It wasn't our fault." But it won't help either.
As I said this is a conflict for years to come, and
you should never underestimate its potential.
NATO might become guilty of installing a tyranny
inside Kosovo that lives in good mutual
understanding with a mirror tyranny in Belgrade.
After a while EU rebuilding money will flow to
both sides to stabilize the system of rhethorical
hatred with added marginal atrocities.
MNI |
