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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Paul Berliner who wrote (1742)	6/11/1999 11:11:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Read Replies (1) of 3536

Personally I think the current price of crude, give or take a dollar, is about right until we see a real increase in Asian economic activity. The recent Japanese GDP report has spurred a lot of interesting talk lately. At the risk of sounding like the conspiracy theorists I often lampoon, I've heard a number of very credible people comment that these numbers may not be 'real'. A lot of it appears to be the result of government spending, both direct and indirect. The accounting of such spending can sometimes be tricky. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the Japanese credit crunch remains a problem and that during the recent quarter it got worse not better. Some of my more paranoid friends point out that politically this is a useful GDP number to have as the last GDP report prior to the coming election. I hesitate to use this number for planning purposes <g>.

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