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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: Henry Volquardsen who wrote (1744)	6/11/1999 11:26:00 AM
From: Paul Berliner	Read Replies (2) of 3536

I'd have to disagree that government spending was the primary catalyst behind the impressive 1.9% figure. I have a hunch that it was more a result of the Nikkei's swift rise earlier in the quarter. When our stock market had the stratospheric Q4 rise, including an 80% leap in the NASDAQ 100, the GDP figure wound up being very high and no one could figure out why - it beat even the most optimistic estimates quite handily. So I'm betting that a sharply rising stock market has a direct correlation with services sector GDP growth, which was the case here in our Q4 (Oct1 to Dec31) and in Japan in their Q4 (Jan1 to Mar31). Now the Nikkei is going to touch 20,000 before it turns back. All the technicians are bullish because it broke through 17,000, so word is out and institutions are loading up on all the faves. Thus, I am again predicting another surprisingly high figure for Q1 in Japan.

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