Bill Wexler's Dog Pound Message Board

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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound

REFR 1.600

-8.5%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Graeme Smith who wrote (1259)	6/11/1999 11:40:00 AM
From: Marconi	Read Replies (1) of 10293

Hello Mr. Smith: I think the market it a little too bullish on balance with the 30 year bonds at 6%. The dollar has weakened substantially. A rate hike would strengthen it. I doubt if Greenspan wants to see the double whammy of a weakening dollar causing foreign money to flow out of our stock stock market and increasing the cost of our net imports. I think the carry on the rate hike is the market has achieved part of it and the Fed will be cautious not to let the dollar slide too far from where it is at. The yen is the nearest touchpoint IMO. AMG Data showed a low flow the last week of 300-400M into equity funds and a little more than that into bond funds. From their trends it looks like money market funds are where the most money went recently, with an uptrend. AMG does not break out domestic versus foreign money flows--at least not in the freebie section. The AMG link is: amgdata.com I am not sure if I have the big picture in grasp, but a falling dollar seems the most lose-lose scenario, and the Fed has some say on the dollar with interest rate tweaks. Where is Joey-Two-Cents? He had the 6% rate pegged nicely last year as occurring sometime this year. I would add that if the dollar is supported by rates, I think the Euro is going to trade close to parity with the dollar yet this year. Best regards, m

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