Dipy: I remember, '87 like it was yesterday. I had an early morning meeting with a client named R** B******, and I needed to pick him up at his house in Lincolnwood, a suburb directly adjacent to Chicago. It was 5:00 in the morning, and we went for an early morning bagel at a bagel joint on Touhy Avenue next to the Edens expressway (R.I.P. Seymour). The place was packed with a bunch of guys with worried looks on their face. By the time I got on the Kennedy expressway at 5:30, the expressway was absolutely packed. I had never seen such traffic at that time of the day. I turned to R**, and I said this is going to be the worst day the market has seen since '29. It was.
There are very real similarities to those days--A popular President whose term is about to expire, a tremendous bull run, the very real specter of increasing interest rates, tremendous increases in productivity.
But if that is the case, I still maintain that the best area to be in, is the semi market, since that is the best area to be in during the beginning of a new bull run. Don't make the mistake of confusing a bear market in stocks with a bear market with semis--or for that matter a bull market in stocks with a bull market in semis. To have confused the latter is to have had one's head handed to him during the past three years. To have understood this principal is to be a superior INVESTOR who over time will be in the right place at the right time. |
