Zeev - my regrets that the water was cold when you put your toe in . . . and my congrats at your discipline in getting out before the blood was all over the place. It is a very volatile stock, and this weeks trading was ugly to say the least - a reverse mirror image of the run up that preceded it, I guess, and certainly capable of explanation short of Auric's doomsday, fraud and hoax, P & D scenario (I still believe that any company whose ATS system is subjected to 3 years of SEC scrutiny and gets approved is far from a hoax and a fraud, though I'll concede it is far from a lock that it will be a success, since it may never win over institutional acceptance).
No way to look at this week except in bearish terms, though I have a few theories or explanations that seem logical - oversold, run up too quick, legitimate concerns about timing spooked people, internet IPO jitters which may slow down the Gomez IPO, tech stocks getting clobbered, daytraders panicking at the first hint of bad news, etc. All of those things may all have contributed to the sell off and price hit. Or maybe there is a subplot we don't know yet which is more ominous - Having spent some time talking to the professionals who run this company, I personally don't think so, but to be honest about it, nothing can be ruled out as a possible cause for a 40% price dip in a week until it either ends or brings us back to low single digits, so we'll just have to wait and see.
But VTS launch is just around the corner, and the system will get to speak for itself soon enough. And the floorless situation is clearly factored in already - indeed, the increase from 15 Million to 23 million shares outstanding itself may have had some effect on the price. I would expect continued volatility over the next few months - but I do not think we are heading in a nose dive back to $4 per share or less, though further leakage sure seems possible.
For me, I am more than doubled up still, and find it very hard to sell any of it given what I believe its positive short term factors to be (mostly related to VTS launch). I am also excited about ATG-Canada, as Canadian provincial exchanges have even bigger front-running problems than in the USA, given the more limited market and brokerage community. And I wonder if there is not some possibility of VTS being a facility for Canadians to trade US stocks in Canada, and for Americans to trade Canadian stocks in the US, which could have profound implications for cross-border liquidity.
Better luck next time if you choose to go long again at an appropriate technical point. I still think very highly of the company and its possibilities to realize upon its business plan.
MST |
