AUTOHOME, Inc Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc

ATHM 23.48

+1.2%

Nov 21 3:59 PM EST

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: ahhaha who wrote (11093)	6/12/1999 3:04:00 AM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (5) of 29970

It is true that stocks don't require a panic bottom This comment motivated me to look back through all the trading history of ATHM and take a look at every bottom. There have been three "major" corrections in ATHM since the IPO in Jul '97. The first was a fall from a peak of 30 to a bottom of 18 1/4 from the period 10/6/97-11/25/97. 32 trading days long and a bottom 60% of the peak. The bottom was a classic panic selloff of 15% loss in a single day followed roughly 2 weeks later by a retest of the low. The second major selloff was from a peak of 55 to a bottom of 28 1/2 during the period 7/1/98-8/31/98. I measure 44 trading days and a bottom (end of day) 52% of the peak. This bottom was even more a classic panic selloff. A single day selloff of 25% marked the end. The stock then hit 23 1/2 intraday on 9/1/98 and ended the day at 33 1/2, a massive reversal. Our current selloff is in its 43rd day. It has fallen from a peak of 198 to our current 86, 43% of the peak. Our loss friday was a mere 7.4%, not quite panic proportions. As was pointed out, there is a chance that friday was a retest of the low the previous friday where the selloff was 10%. I don't believe it. I see a nasty fall to 75 (38% of peak) before this whole thing is over. I'm left "hoping" I'm wrong. Hope is a bad thing to base your choices on. This has already been the most severe selloff ATHM has ever seen in its lifetime. It is worse than what happened in the major market "crash" last fall. I guess this time because there was no solid reason for all the fear and we had survived it before people were more confident, which extended the fall. You are correct that not all selloffs end in a panic bottom. Another typical pattern is to enter into a long slow basebuilding process. 3 months is common. In my memory that seems to happen when there has been a fundamental change at the company, such as an earnings warning or a problem with the industry and the drop in price is a major gap down or a rapid 1-3 day selloff. So it ends in Fire or in Ice. You've seen much more than I, how else can it end? Eric

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next