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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: jjs_ynot who wrote (16157)	6/12/1999 7:39:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot	Read Replies (1) of 99985

MACD UPDATE This update reviews the intermediate market trend (2-6) weeks based on MACD indicators. SPX - Down for 9 weeks and a failed bounce from below a "0" point. From an MACD perspective, the "0" line of support is becoming resistance. OEX - Down for week 8 approached a "0" point where it bounced and just returned to "0". RUT - Down for the third week in a row INDU (DOW) - Down for the fourth week with a strong down slope. Appears to be headed for "0" at least implying a test of 10250. TRAN - The previously indicated strong down move that is now 4 weeks old. It only slowed briefly near "0" and penetrated well below. This is a very negative chart from an MACD perspective. COMPX (Nasdaq) - Oscillating below "0" now an 8 week old down move. Here again "0" appears resistance. A modest move up from here would give a buy signal. NDX - Same as COMPX. Came very close to a buy signal this week, but then failed. IIX - Down for 9 weeks. Penetrated an important "0" point. The downward slope has become less. DOT - Down for 10 weeks and has started to flatten well into negative territory BKX - Down for 6 weeks. Had previously started to flatten but the decline below "0" has started to accelerate. XAU - Down for 5 weeks. Has flattened and may give a buy signal this week. HFX - Down for 4 weeks. Sliced through a "0" point. Like the Dow a strong downtrend. DRG - A failed buy signal deep in negative territory. About to give a sell signal. This is a sign of real weakness. UTIL - An 8 week uptrend appears about to give a sell signal. TYX - Several weeks ago a cross into a downtrend occurred and was negated. This is now moving up in a strong uptrend. SOX - A strong 1 weak-old uptrend. MSH - A 1 week uptrend appears about to fail. As previously stated, market reaction near supports was important. A number of technical supports have failed or appear are about to fail. The market leaders DOW, HFX, TRAN and internet stocks (DOT and IIX) are falling. The apparent bottoming of XAU and strong uptrend of TYX are also a negative for the market. The one bright spot is that the NDX is showing some signs of finding support and the SOX is actually trending up. Both of these may be attributable to the economic resurgence of Asia. Extreme caution is warranted here on both sides. However, the long side only seems to be viable for short term trades at the moment. Good trading.

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