MPTV another Financial Prediction: (slight mistake in first post, forgot to increase shares on Hawaii, and Palm Springs)
Latest attempt to update MPTV earnings potential
for the next several months.
Assumptions:
Authorized limit - 750 mil (not confirmed)
Outstanding shares - 625 mil (maybe slightly high, not much though)
Note this is only a rough estimate.
Current estimated value of the property (conservative) = $35mil
Current estimated debt (conservative) = $12mil
Net profit = $23mil
Book value = $23mil/625mil shares
= .035 (value of stock when loan closes)
Lake Tropicana:
Total assets from sales = $261mil (20,592 intervals x $12,700)
estimate profit ratio of 20% (conservative)
profit = .2*$261mil = 52.2mil
Estimate 18 months for total sell out:
Total guess, these numbers could vary wildly depending
on how fast the corporate sales go..
65% total sales for first 12 months
35% total sales for last 6 months
Estimated contributing EPS for 1st year after sales start: $.054
($33.9mil/625mil shares x .2)
Estimated contributing EPS for 2nd year after sales start:$.029
($18.3mil/625mil shares x .2)
Now add in Palm Springs and Hawaii
RANCHO MIRAGE VACATIONS
65% of revenues goes to MPTV, assume 20% profit
Total estimated revenues: $36,504,000 (4992 intervals x $11,250)
Timeframe: 18 months (average of 1 to 2 years)
Estimated contributing EPS for 1st year after sales start: $.0076
($24mil/625mil shares x .2)
Estimated contributing EPS for 2001: $.004
($12.5 mil/625 mil shares, x .2)
KONA REEFSHARE RESORT
Total estimated revenues: $110,448,024.96 (6708 intervals x $16,465.12)
Timeframe: 30 months (average of 2 to 3 years)
40% 1st year after start:
Contributing EPS for 1st year: $.014
($44mil/625mil shares, x .2)
40% 2nd year after start:
Contributing EPS for 2nd year: $.014
($44mil/625mil shares, x .2)
20% 3rd year after start:
Contributing EPS for 3rd year: $.007
($22mil/625mil shares, x .2)
EPS estimate for 1st year of operations = .054+.0076+.014 = $0.075
Use a multiple of 10 and it gives you a conservative estimate
of $0.75 stock.
There are many other factors that could affect these numbers.
The numbers are conservative and one could easily double these values.
The industry average for a multiple in the timeshare market is 20 or better.
All this doesn't even take into account that MPTV is
carrying forward a $20 million plus tax-deductible business loss. |
