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Strategies & Market Trends : Metastock 6.0 for Window
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To: Richard Estes who wrote (3125)6/12/1999 8:41:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III  Read Replies (1) of 4056
 
Thanks for the answers. >>You can not recreate reality in a system test. The best way to do it, load all the data you can get, min of 5 years. and see how it performed over all the history and cycles of the stock. << The problem is we have been in a straight up market since 1982 and accelerated up even more since 1995. I want to start working on downward sloping system tests since bullish systems may not work when the trend swings the other way. I have tested a few systems on some lousy stocks that fall a lot but I refine my settings for each stock so when trying to test a system on them, they may not work well in a bull market.

For example, what if I only want to sell the rallys instead of buying the dips. Buying the dips or buy and hold may show a better system test if the stock did nothing but go up 11 out of 12 months. However, if the market were to trend down next year, I would lose my shirt buying the dips where as a system that tested bad from 82-99 might make a bundle.

Thanks again,

Lee

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