Harold-You ask an interesting question-one that has been bothering me in the back of mind for awhile which I had put on the back burner...Here is what I think from an Elliott Wave perspective only--After a 5 Wave move Up, it is the end of a sequence and a Retrace sets in...I personally think the OSX is very close to finishing the 5th wave in the sequence that began at Mar 1st 47ish. It could top out near 82-83 imo as that is where my trading software based on momentum is flashing the next potential stop and reverse area.---also, that would jive with my take on crude only needing say +75c to complete 5 waves up from the 10-11 low.......Now, after the end of a 5 wave sequence, EW theory says that the up sequence (47-83) can be retraced UP TO 99% (ie back to say 48) and still be valid. Usually, however the retrace will be in the 38%-62% area which would mean to anywhere between say 61-69. But there is nothing in EW that says the retrace CAN'T go to 99%, just that it is quite unlikely.--So, my best guess to answer your question is that after a test of say 82-83 this coming week, the OSX will reverse back into the 60's (half way would be 65) into July, after which it should relaunch again. That is my Most Likely Scenario, not of course the only scenario....I note that a number of the stocks have negative macd divergences signalling near the end of a move-some are even in very dangerous upsloping wedge patterns which are screaming -to me at least-'get out now or in the next few days' (RDC,GLM,PTEN,WFT,BJS come to mind). I think SLB could move down now to 55-56. HAL looks VERY close to a key potential Stop and Reverse test in here...etc etc etc....Then I look at FLC, which i own, and I'm thinking 12.50ish (now 9.88) so you can see my 'delemma'.
So what do I know (vbg) |
