<Triple Bottom would mean buy. $90 would mean buy big>
Yeah, whatever - good luck to you, because $90 is NOT a triple bottom. It's dangerous to arbitrarily pick dips to buy, because the real triple bottom was just broken ($105-1/2) last Friday. TA-wise, if we equate $105-1/2 as the 50% retracement level from the recent peak of $175-1/2, the downside target has thus become $35 or so. OK, I'm not THAT bearish, but if you truly believe in TA, you have to be respectful of what it is forecasting. Intermediate supports (Fibonnaci) are at $89 (38.2%) and $68-1/2 (23.6%).
Remember, the first objective is to NOT lose money. The NEXT objective is to make money.
Major resistance for bonds at 6 to 6-1/8% was taken out without any effort whatsoever, and that is something to be VERY worried about. IMO, the chances for a MAJOR correction in the next few weeks are quite good.
I'm going to be defensive and bail out of most of my positions at a loss to be on the sidelines next week.
The end of 2Q will coincide with the Fed meeting on the 30th. The 29th will be the peak in terms of investor anxiety, and may be a day to be buying call options and shorting puts for good risk/reward trades. Better wait 'till then. |
