MDA - Market Direction Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: LLCF who wrote (17090)	6/13/1999 12:04:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) of 99985

>>next 15% [S&P] are up/down and within 3 months<< IMO this thread doesn't operate that way. We all trade different time frames and change our minds with the market. I know I don't fit your definition at all but my view right now is ... Down st the beginning of this week, then whipsaw as triple witch approaches, then probably J6P upward close Friday near the end of the day depending on where we are in relation to the Max Pain point on the OEX. Mid term is hazy still until the FOMC meets. I don't try to fight the fed or use a crystal ball. Long term, I am not in the total all out crash scenario camp. I tend to fall into the long drawn out downward grinding to flat camp as earnings catchup and approach historical valuation equilibrium. with mini corrections and mini rallies along the way. Pan back and look at some charts at random some time. Stock price growth has slowed in this market on a rotational basis. It started last year and has slowly been moving from sector to sector. Small caps got hammered then stalled trading flat Semis were next, then IT, services and Y2K stocks did the same. The rotation scenario has been going on for a long time under everyone's noses while they were screaming about the higher DOW not noticing it was on fewer and fewer stocks. Ichart a lot, and I mean a lot of stocks. By my estimation, 80-90% have lower PE ratios now than they did 2 years ago and most have prices to match. However the few that have beenused to prop up the indexes are at higher PE ratios than ever and are so inflated it is scary. Draw a long term fork on GTW then see what it did this week. Dell last couple of weeks, etc. The boxmakers turn is now apparently. I do play both sides and just go with the flow. I could be bearish tonight and a bull on Monday. I do what my charts say since they don't listen to me. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee

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