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Politics : Ask Michael Burke
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (62210)6/13/1999 9:23:00 AM
From: gnuman  Read Replies (2) of 132070
 
SIA and Industry forecasts.
Last November Steve Appleton, (Micron), made a presentation to the SIA.
(Find it in SIA News).

His first foil highlighted the inability of industry experts to
forecast DRAM revenues.
In 1995 four leading experts forecast DRAM revenues through 1998.
(1995 revenues were $41 billion).
Here's an extrapolation of the chart. (In billions).

1995 1996 1997 1998
Forecast average $54 $66 $92
Actual revenues $41 $24 $20 $14

I also find it funny that total W/W semi revenues in 1998 were only $125 Billion,
yet these esteemed forecasters projected DRAM at $92 billion. <g>

Give Appleton credit for hi-liting the problem of forecasting.
Just my HMO's of course. <g>
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