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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Nov 14 4:00 PM EST

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To: donald sew who wrote (17046)	6/13/1999 9:52:00 AM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Don, Your analysis is always enjoyable. In the 1990's the U.S. stock market was in a bullish uptrend and around 1995 the stock market started to incline at a greater rate. Could the same thing happen in reverse; as the Japanese and other foreign economies stabilize, their markets will start to first pull back their funds and then later down the road even start to pull American funds into their markets at increasing rates. As the demand decreases the prices drop. I do believe the Fed will find it necessary to raise rates at least once, who knows maybe even all three 1/4 point back scratchers will be recalled. However, there will in all likelyhood be another flight to quality, because of the Y2K situation. This money will be afraid of foreign markets less prepared for Y2K, and that is why countries like Argentina are crying foul about the US raising rates. They are going to get a double whammy later this year! So, the rate hikes will be a great incentive to invest in US Treasuries and a dissincentive to invest elsewhere. I think AG is doing what he can to draw people out of very high risk equities into a safer environment. I hope they listen. BWDIK.

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