Harold:
My .02 on AMGN's pipeline is this:
1. Stemgen is expected to receive FDA approval and begin sales soon, probably by the end of the year. This product will allow the delivery of higher doses of cancer chemotherapy. In the long run, this should reduce costs, since delivery of higher chemotherapeutic regimens will reduce repeat hospitalizations, and will enable more effective palliation of symptoms, and probably increase the likelihood of remission in cases where this is possible. The market for this drug is potentially huge, cancer being as prevalent as it is. And this market may increase in size for demographic reasons (growing aging population, increasing life spans), although this may not be a significant factor during the lifetime of this drug.
2. NESP (Phase 3) is a potent stimulator of red blood cell production, and so will likely have a role in many conditions which have an associated anemia (either primary or secondary). This is the "second generation" Epogen, which it will probably replace.
3. Abarelix (Phase 3) is useful in the treatment of prostate cancer (one of the commonest cancers in men, and diagnosed with increasing sensitivity with newer diagnostic tests; again, demographics are favorable, since it is thought that virtually all men will eventually develop prostate CA if they live long enough). It is also in Phase 2 as a treatment for endometriosis. I don't know how big a market this may be (anyone???).
4. Other cancer therapy adjuncts: Keratinocyte Growth Factor (Phase 2) and Filgrastim SD-01(Phase 2). Filgrastim SD-01 may be regarded as the "second generation" Neupogen. So it can be seen here that AMGN is focussing much of its development efforts on cancer-related drugs, and this could establish quite a presence for the company in oncology.
5. BDNF (Phase 2) is a treatment for Lou Gehrig's Disease (ALS). Not a huge market, but there is currently little effective treatment for this disease that I'm aware of, so this product could dominate here, and considering the grim nature of the disease, AMGN could have a lot of pricing power.
6. Leptin (Phase 2) is a treatment for obesity. I am skeptical that this will ever be effective, considering what has been discovered in recent years. Leptin was the first "fat gene", but it is only the ligand for a CNS receptor, and anyway other "fat genes" have been discovered which show much more promise as a potential treatment for obesity (notably, mahogany, published in the prestigious journal Nature in March by scientists from Millenium [MLNM] as well as an independent group; they [MLNM] are actively pursuing this, and are worth looking at). I don't think Leptin will go anywhere, and I don't know why AMGN is pursuing it. Anybody have any take on this???
7. Calcimetics (Phase 2), used to treat hyperparathyroidism (both primary and secondary). I don't know what the sice of this market may be, nor what competition they may have elsewhere. (Anybody???).
8. Inflammation drugs: AMGN is developing two drugs to treat inflammatory conditions, which are widely prevalent, so the market is large. But big pharma is also (notably, COX-2 inhibitors, the most recent by Merck), so I'm not sure about the ultimate impact of these two drugs (Interleukin 1 Receptor Antagonist, and Tumor Necrosis Factor a Receptor Type I). Anybody have insight here??
9. Osteoprotegerin--this is in preclinicals, and I understand shortly to start Phase 1. I am directly familiar with this protein, its discovery, and have talked to those working in the field. It is a critical regulator of osteoclast development, and works in conjunction with a soluble ligand circulating in the blood (OPG Ligand). There are exciting potential applications here to both the diagnosis and treatment of osteoporosis (a very large potential market), certain cancers, and osteopetrotic conditions as well (a much smaller market). But these are years away (at least 5, I would think). AMGN scientists working in this area are top-notch, avidly developing stategic alliances, and highly regarded (they have published in the absolutely best journals in science [a couple of papers in Cell, in particular, which is the most prestigious and influential journal in science and medicine]).
So, all in all, I see a pretty exciting future: products with great potential, expertise to develop them, management with demonstrated saavy and the ability to market effectively and reap great profits. Quite a constellation of attributes, and these are reflected in the company's balance sheet. Granted, uncertainties are present, and competition is not entirely clear to me, but it is hard for me to find reasons NOT to invest some money in this company, with a long term outlook of course (I'm not a speculator or day trader).
JMHO.
Others???
Walkingshadow
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