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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket.

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To: Dnorman who wrote (885)6/13/1999 6:29:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins  Read Replies (2) of 2103
 
Dorman; Here it is, along with my comments.
--------------------
From prices and weighting starting on FEB 19th,99
THE TOP twenty of the NDX weight wise are DOWN .43%
However the NDX is UP 6.77 %, this means the NDX is not
as liquid as it was back in FEB 19th, the divergence would
indicate that an adjustment will be made and tath it will most
likely take the NDX down taht 6% ( OR MORE )
Look good at the TOP 5 as they should be pushing the NDX
however the TOP 5 caps are on an average DOWN .96%,
again with the NDX UP this is unhealthy liquid wise,
as it indicates she is standing on her tail and has made the
gains in the index on thinner traded stocks.
Any profit taking from the smaller caps can now
take her down fast !!
While CSCO shows some strength she is the only really large
cap that has outdone the index.
MSFT & WCOM are not bad but have underpreformed the index,
so leadership has really fell back or at best slowed down.
Until the divergence is resolved by them gaining or the others
falling, I consider Long positions to have more risk than
short ones. The head has dipped 6% below the index and it will
take more money coming in by far to bring it up, than it will
take going out of the others to drop the index that 6%.
As usual when adjustments happen they often over shoot..so
I think another 10% down side on the index is reasonable to expect.
This is just the top 20 weight wise , the other 80 can be deduce from
the index being Up.
The money and gains are in the smaller caps and the index is
floating on thin legs.
--------------------
Sun Jun 13 6:03pm ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Symbol Last Trade Change Avg Vol Volume Value Change Gain Value Mkt Cap Symbol Day's Range
^NDX Jun 11 2062.29 -35.50 -1.69% N/A N/A -$0.00 -1.69% $0.01 +6.77% $0.21 N/A ^NDX 2057.19 2120.54
QQQ Jun 11 103 9/16 -1 19/32 -1.52% N/A 8,283,800 - -1.52% - - - N/A QQQ 102 5/8 105 63/64
MSFT Jun 11 78 1/8 -1 3/4 -2.19% 25,082,044 17,271,500 -$6.85 -2.19% $16.63 +5.75% $305.75 335.5B MSFT 77 9/16 80 1/2
INTC Jun 11 54 7/16 -15/16 -1.69% 19,866,136 22,891,600 -$2.45 -1.69% -$25.02 -14.98% $141.99 180.6B INTC 54 1/4 56 11/16
WCOM Jun 11 88 1/2 -1 5/16 -1.46% 11,225,181 7,268,700 -$1.94 -1.46% $6.37 +5.12% $130.71 164.7B WCOM 88 1/16 90 3/8
CSCO Jun 11 110 11/16 +1/4 +0.23% 12,920,590 10,694,700 $0.32 +0.23% $17.33 +13.96% $141.45 176.8B CSCO 110 1/2 112 7/16
DELL Jun 11 34 3/16 -5/16 -0.91% 30,629,136 16,368,100 -$0.66 -0.91% -$12.34 -14.66% $71.79 86.706B DELL 33 3/4 35 3/16
ORCL Jun 11 25 5/16 -3/4 -2.88% 19,897,228 13,833,700 -$1.01 -2.88% -$14.50 -29.84% $34.10 36.437B ORCL 25 26 1/4
SUNW Jun 11 59 11/16 -1/8 -0.21% 9,800,000 4,935,500 -$0.09 -0.21% $8.62 +23.78% $44.84 46.190B SUNW 59 60 3/4
AMGN Jun 11 52 5/16 -1 3/8 -2.56% 5,084,181 4,918,300 -$0.73 -2.56% -$5.20 -15.71% $27.89 26.784B AMGN 52 1/8 54 3/4
AMAT Jun 11 65 13/16 -3/16 -0.28% 8,767,818 8,305,900 -$0.08 -0.28% -$1.24 -4.19% $28.33 24.546B AMAT 63 3/4 66 3/4
YHOO Jun 11 135 1/4 -9 1/2 -6.56% 7,350,863 6,486,000 -$2.02 -6.56% -$0.01 -0.05% $28.74 27.641B YHOO 134 1/4 146 1/2
ATHM Jun 11 86 -6 7/8 -7.40% 4,177,000 6,896,300 -$1.29 -7.40% -$2.77 -14.64% $16.14 10.807B ATHM 85 3/8 95 3/4
LVLT Jun 11 71 1/2 -1 7/16 -1.97% 1,744,272 784,000 -$0.75 -1.97% $7.62 +25.44% $37.55 24.251B LVLT 70 1/4 75
CMCSK Jun 11 32 13/16 -2 1/16 -5.91% 3,946,272 8,638,300 -$1.49 -5.91% -$1.92 -7.49% $23.73 22.952B CMCSK 32 5/8 35 5/8
NXTL Jun 11 37 -1/4 -0.67% 4,874,909 3,953,700 -$0.20 -0.67% $5.09 +21.06% $29.24 10.291B NXTL 36 13/16 37 9/16
COST Jun 11 72 1/2 -1 7/16 -1.94% 2,130,545 1,088,000 -$0.37 -1.94% -$2.35 -11.18% $18.68 15.925B COST 72 74 9/16
LLTC Jun 11 58 -1 3/16 -2.01% 1,456,272 1,659,800 -$0.54 -2.01% $4.16 +18.90% $26.15 8.877B LLTC 57 1/4 61
AMZN Jun 11 105 13/16 -10 1/8 -8.73% 7,971,090 6,943,300 -$2.42 -8.73% $0.94 +3.87% $25.34 17.095B AMZN 104 3/4 117
QWST Jun 11 44 7/8 +1 +2.28% 3,789,636 5,034,000 $0.40 +2.28% -$3.92 -17.94% $17.93 31.592B QWST 43 15/16 45 3/8
SPLS Jun 11 27 9/16 -1 3/16 -4.13% 3,516,727 2,677,600 -$0.83 -4.13% -$0.39 -2.00% $19.23 12.811B SPLS 26 7/8 29
CMGI Jun 11 89 3/4 -11 3/4 -11.58% 5,149,363 10,968,600 -$1.33 -11.58% -$2.18 -17.66% $10.15 8.379B CMGI 88 3/16 96 1/2
22 symbols
Totals(USD):
-$24.33-2.02%-$5.08-0.43%$1,179.94
------------------------
It's not looking good for the Bulls.

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