Doc,
Here are my thoughts...
I think the market's not trying to decide on 1 cut, but it's in the "is it 2, or possibly 3 cuts over the next few quarters", mode.
If CPI is not too threatening, the market will rally because it will staunch the thinking to just a possible second cut, from the fear of that as a certainty.
If HH testimony "piles on" verbally and makes 2 cuts more certain, then I would look for 2300 or lower on NAZ over the next week to 10 days, and low 10K, or even high 9K on the DOW. Long bond would go to 6.25 or 6.3.
I think he will do 2 25 basis points cuts, vs 1 50 point cut. The market would be friendlier to that, IMHO, because it leaves hope that the door will stay open that a second cut won't be required if the numbers settle down.
On the positive side, I think earnings are going to be SUPER for the stuff I like to buy. Technology, semi and telecom. I will play those on the long side irrespective of the overall economic stuff because they are playable.
Generally, I think I am still in "write covered call" mode, vs buying puts mode. I don't think we'll have a meltdown, so I haven't decided how or what to buy to protect the entire portfolio with S&P/OEX puts, or even if that is required.
There is a chance that any rally will "call" some of my stocks anyway, which would generate cash for the earnings related rally.
That's my thinking and how I am playing it.
Regards thread,
Steve |
