The Bottom Line
Excerpt from the EWT ST Update for 6/11
“Five waves down from Monday's high are done, or nearly
so, at today's intraday low. This impulsive decline should be
Minute wave one of Minor wave 3 or c down (from Monday's
high). Due early next week is a Minute wave two bounce, so
stocks are likely to start a rally sometime Monday. This view
is supported by NYSE breadth, which was a little firmer
today versus yesterday, despite an additional 131 point Dow
loss on top of yesterday's 69 point decline. Normal Fibonacci
and previous fourth wave retracement levels in the Dow are
10616-10692; in the S&P futures, 1320-1327; in the cash
index, 1306.45-1311.91; in the OEX, 661-664.74; in the Dow
Diamonds, 106-107; and in the S&P Spiders, 131-132.
These levels are typical resistance for a bounce, but the
crucial levels for the bearish case are Monday's highs.
These highs cannot be violated or we will be forced to
consider more bullish potential for the major averages.
(These highs are 10917 in the Dow, 1352 in the S&P
futures, 1336.43 in cash, 677.04 in the OEX, 109¼ in the
Diamonds and just above 134 in the Spiders).”
Elliott Count
10596 – 6/01 – 15:30--------(i)
10468 – 6/02 – 09:30--------(ii)
10485 – 6/02 – 10:30-----i
10478 – 6/02 – 11:30-----ii
10652 – 6/03 – 10:30-----iii
10604 – 6/03 – 14:30-----iv
10727 – 6/04 – 09:30-----v--(iii)
10690 – 6/04 – 12:30--------(iv)
10864 – 6/07 – 10:30-----i
10857 – 6/07 – 11:30-----ii
10913 – 6/07 – 13:30-----iii
10904 – 6/07 – 14:30-----iv
10909 – 6/07 – 15:30-----v---(v)---[c]---2 or B
10806 – 6/08 – 11:30-----i
10788 – 6/08 – 12:30-----ii
10740 – 6/08 – 14:30-----iii
10766 – 6/08 - 15:30-----iv
10702 – 6/09 - 11:30-----v----(i)
10690 – 6/09 - 15:30----------(ii)
10529 – 6/10 - 14:30----------(iii)
10621 – 6/10 - 15:30----------(iv)
10478 – 6/11 – 13:30----------(v)---
The Dow appears to have completed five waves down. As
you must know, by now, any five wave sequence is ALWAYS
followed by a correction which must obviously be
counter-trend. The pattern a correction will
follow is always uncertain. They are always difficult to count.
We do however know that:
(a) a cycle low is due in four weeks +/- one week.
(b) an FOMC meeting is scheduled for the end of June.
(c) the Dow has fallen 700 points in four weeks.
(d) we expect it to fall another 700 points in the next four
weeks.
This will bring the Dow to 9700 approx. .382% of the run-up
from the Sep low.
ǧ
boards.fool.com
|
